Recently, I reviewed the technical differences between the Pfizer, Moderna, and AstraZeneca vaccines being created to combat the global spread of COVID-19. This article will have a look at market impact on the basis of the immediate future regarding the vaccine rollout. The good news is plentiful — the vaccines appear to be effective and easy enough to manufacture. The bad news is far tougher to come by. Scarcity and cost could force nations to adopt the less-effective AstraZeneca vaccine, and it may be as late as summer 2021 before people are able to change their behavior on the basis of the proportion of the population who have been vaccinated against the disease, but if Bitcoin will tend to increase in price as the economies of the world come back online at scale, we should see appreciation throughout 2021 as the world recovers from the scourge of COVID-19.
Specifically, Pfizer and Moderna seem to be extremely likely to benefit in the short and long term as the technology that made the vaccines these companies produced possible will also make it possible to treat other conditions by injecting lipid nanoparticle-encapsulated mRNA into localized regions of the body. AstraZeneca was close and could still have a major and in-demand product due to the low cost of their vaccine.
As the economy gets back into swing, remote work and contract work will probably continue to do well for some time to come. Alcohol sales could drop, but bars and the music industry could see a considerable comeback as the world’s citizens celebrate their newfound freedom from the fear of COVID-19. Cruise and airline stocks could also mount a comeback as people get back to doing the things they were doing before COVID-19 struck.
What To Watch For In The Long Term
One interesting market dynamic that stands out amidst all the potential changes that will follow from the successful launch of vaccines is the Bitcoin claim to status as a hedge against inflation. Economic pressures are unlikely to dissipate as quickly as the virus does, but it is nonetheless probable that stimulus will assist with the recovery and speed things along to the greatest extent achievable.
With that said, inflation is one boogeyman on the horizon, as the global economy pushes forward and perhaps finds a way to decrease its reliance upon US Dollars. Still, a quickening of global economies will probably increase transaction volume on the various public blockchain networks, and that may push prices considerably higher.
Still, stormy days are on the horizon as regulatory discussions analyze the various possible options to shepherd and secure the cryptocurrency space in a way which makes some amount of sense. Anti-regulation cryptocurrency analysts will oversell the bearish possibilities, and this will have a negative impact on crypto prices. News of declining COVID-19 cases will send prices higher, and stimulus will likely have a major positive impact upon the markets as well.
Next week, we will see whether or not the stimulus package Nancy Pelosi has worked to pass will finally make it through the Senate, and, in conjunction with a steady stream of news about the COVID-19 vaccines, the bulls should overpower the bears for some time to come regardless of individual policy preferences or alarmism in the cryptocurrency press.
If, due to supply constraints, shipping problems, or some other issue, COVID-19 vaccination plans are allowed to fail, we can probably expect a correction in many global markets, but this seems unlikely at the moment. The products we see from Pfizer and Moderna are true marvels of technology and the moral of the story is that the most likely way for the next few months to unfold is with these two vaccines front and center. How that will shake out, precisely, in the cryptocurrency markets, has yet to be determined. That said, I’m still long everything. I think we’re in for a very wild ride.
Here’s What To Look For In The Short Term
Next week, Bitcoin will most likely break $20,000 and never look back. Tonight, I’m writing this article to do a bit more analysis of just what has been happening during this period of 2020 turbulence because there is a lot going on in the cryptocurrency world right now. I’ve been closely following a token called NEXO because I believe it is on its way to join crypto’s elite club: the billion dollar market cap. I also believe Ethereum may be a clear winner over the course of the next few months.
Personally, I am a bit surprised that we haven’t seen $20,000 BTC this year quite yet because the story has become such a one-sided bullish affair. Even during the current age with quantum supremacy having been demonstrated, there simply is no real bear case to be made against Bitcoin. It still doesn’t appear to be on the verge of being hackable, and the ease of use is ensuring its widespread distribution.
One analyst tweeted that there was “no resistance until $74,000” for Bitcoin, and I’m eager to see if he’s right. On the one hand, it’s entirely likely that a major price bump of 50% or more would be met by a sell-off as eager traders take profits, but the slow and steady progress BTC has made this year has been characterized more by measured increases and mild corrections. On the other hand, we saw what retail investor interest accomplished in 2017 and have no reason to believe the same sort of event is impossible in 2020, even if it does appear more likely that the current trends will continue.
NEXO stands to gain everything from a massive price bump for BTC. The app is easy and straightforward and reliable, the transactions are fast and free, and you earn more interest if you allow your payout to come in NEXO, which provides a continual upward pressure that hasn’t allowed the price to flag much recently even during the mild corrections it has endured.
As BTC drives interest and success stories about leveraged investments there refine that interest and identify Nexo.io as the place to go for cheap leverage against major crypto tokens, the incentive to own the NEXO token is being pushed through the roof again and again. The chart analysts will tell you it has gone parabolic, and that a correction is due, but I think the whole story has to involve the BTC price. As long as BTC is increasing steadily, NEXO will race ahead and provide multiples against investments made at virtually any price level.
I’m neither qualified nor inclined to give financial advice, but I’m eagerly watching BTC move north as my NEXO tokens approach a 300% return. In fact, I’m buying more because I still see the potential for a 10x in the near term. That would put my initial investment over 30x, and NEXO would be the centerpiece of everything I’ve done since about the beginning of February 2020.
This fall, I’ve sat outside ETH for the most part. I’ve played Bitcoin a lot and had some exceptional luck as a direct consequence. I’ve also sat in ATOM and BAND rather than get into ETH because I believe the ETH2 launch will be long and challenging. Nonetheless, the ETH2 contract is full and Genesis has begun.
ETH has barely kept up with Bitcoin since this time last month, and I can’t help but wonder if I’m not the only person in the country who is skeptical of the ETH2 rollout. Nonetheless, I believe even the growth ETH has seen in price could be thought of as a consolidation period. It would be no understatement to argue that ETH is a powderkeg waiting to explode in the current market.
I believe it may be time to reverse my anti-ETH stance and commit more to my small ETH bag because the growth has been one-way and incremental until now. News of stimulus, of a vaccine program on the way, and of a possible US Government-backed USD stablecoin pitch by top Democrats (Pelosi fronted this “digital dollar” during the first round of stimulus talks)… all of this adds up to the perfect storm for the #1 blockchain developer ecosystem. Getting Tether off of Ethereum would probably fix the network by dramatically reducing transaction volume if sensible legislation were to lead to a better alternative. Transaction costs might suddenly find themselves competitive with other, newer networks.
Final Thoughts: SO. BULLISH.
Let’s face it, everyone. I’ve only been doing this for about a year now, but I’m fascinated to see such a large number of such positive (that’s a relative term!) indicators on the horizon. I cannot help but wonder if the broader markets will correct as a result of the meteoric ascent of cryptocurrency and blockchain technology that seems to lie just around the corner for us today.
The chance remains, and always will remain, that I could be wrong about any or all of this. In fact, I’m holding my ATOM and BAND because I am not confident that they will substantially underperform BTC or another large cap crypto token more than 21 days from today. Instead, I’m holding those assets and patiently waiting for their value to increase, too. Many options are available today for traders eager to make a profit and/or help to finance the construction of our future. It would be difficult to go wrong if we have a successful vaccine distribution effort and a stimulus package on the way.
Still, it’s always possible that something will go wrong. Be safe, be smart, and have fun.